A story about CableCard technology ran in the New York Times this month that quotes Richard Doherty of the market research firm Envisioneering Group saying:

"The CableCard is essentially dead, It will go down in history like the Edsel."

Heralded as successor to the Digital Cable TV set top box CableCard is a special plug-in card provided by the local Cable TV Company roughly the size of a thick credit card. The card plugs into a compatible TV slot so you can tune in subscribed Digital Cable TV programming. CableCard currently exists in the standard 1.0 and 2.0 formats but a future version could be on the horizon (if it survives) called OpenCard. CableCard should be one of those no-brainer success stories in new technology, offering convenience to users and making more devices Digital Cable ready should hasten the conversion to HDTV.

According to the New York Times the technology has failed to capture the market and is experiencing a steady decline. Some six million CableCard equiped digital TV sets have been sold but only 170,000 (less than 3%) are actually using the feature. The rest of us are using the trusty old set top box. TV manufacturers have even begun to reduce the numbers of CableCard ready sets they sell. According to Envisioneering 80% fewer models will be released in '06 that include CableCard slots than were released in '05.

The reason for the decline seems to be the lack of a clear beneficiary besides us, the customer. Television manufacturers are only seeing it as an increased cost to producing a TV which reflects upon the price on store shelves. The cable TV companies have little incentive to adopt CableCard because they have a revenue stream in rental fees for the set top boxes they provide. Don't expect the set top box to go away anytime soon. Cable Companies are looking for ways to expand its role. Through it Cable TV has an added presence in the living room can sell services like On-Demand, PVR and the Interactive menu system. Matt Haughey from the PVR Blog says that he and many Comcast subscribers are even discouraged from using CableCard feature in their TVs when they've called to have the service activated.

Matt goes on to say the eulogy for the CableCard standard is premature and that the best of CableCard is yet to come. TiVo Series3 and Windows Vista Media Center PCs will be examples of CableCard ready devices that can record HDTV. There's little incentive for Cable TV nor TV manufacturers to bother with CableCard. But CableCard slots in a third party PVR and HTPC will benefit consumers who want to be free from the box. The success of the standard can only benefit the consumer by adding flexibility to their Cable TV subscription and ability to tune in on any CableCard ready device.